It’s football time! The 2026 season is underway with Week 1 starting a day early. The Patriots and Seahawks kick things off on Wednesday this year because the 49ers and Rams are squaring off in Australia on Thursday. Due to the time difference, the NFL decided to kick this season off a day earlier than usual.
The start of the season means the return of Survivor pools. If you’ve never played before, a survivor pool involves picking one team each week that you think will win. If your team wins in Week 1, you can make a pick in Week 2. If your team wins in Week 2, you can make a pick in Week 3, and so on. The catch is that you cannot pick a team twice. You could very well use a heavy favorite in Week 1, but you won’t have access to them later in the year if you’re alive in the closing weeks. Most pools knock you out after one incorrect pick, but some do offer a double elimination process.
Whatever the case, there is plenty of strategy in determining which team you will take each week. SB Nation is here to help as we take a look at the safest choices, best value picks, and then trap picks. Normally this column will publish on Thursday, but with the early start to Week 1, we’re publishing a day early.
I’ve included odds for the favorite in each game, courtesy of FanDuel.
Safest picks
Chargers (-9.5) over Cardinals
Jaguars (-8.5) over Browns
The two biggest favorites are the safest you can use this week. The Cardinals and Browns will probably not go winless this season, but both are among the worst in the league in win totals. Meanwhile, the Chargers are fifth in Super Bowl odds at FanDuel while the Jaguars are in the middle of the pack, and both teams have second best odds to win their respective divisions. There’s no reason to get cute in Week 1, especially if you don’t have more than two entries in your contests.
Best value picks
Steelers (-3.5) over Falcons
Raiders (-3.5) over Dolphins
If you’re playing with only one or two entries, I think you go safe right out of the gate. But if you want to get a little cheeky, the Steelers and Raiders are intriguing. The Steelers win total sits at 8.5 with the under getting the juice, while the Raiders win total sits at 5.5 with the over getting the juice. The Falcons and Dolphins are both dealing with serious quarterback questions and low expectations. You might use the Steelers in Week 8 when they host the Browns, but you likely will not use the Raiders again this season barring something dramatic changing for them or one of their opponents. The value lies in not using them again.
Trap pick
Lions (-6.5) over Saints
Eagles (-5.5) over Commanders
The Saints are as big a question as there is this season. Tyler Shough raises all sorts of red flags, but if you’re onboard with him, you might be a fan of the Saints this season. If not, well, you might be picking the Lions this week. I think it’s too soon to tell what to make of New Orleans, so stay away.
The same holds true for the Commanders. Will Jayden Daniels bounce back? That aside, there’s no reason to be taking a winner in a divisional game in Week 1. You save divisional games for late in the season or maybe a Browns-type of game.